2 hours ago
While writing down talking points the weekend before the March 3 Real Estate Symposium hosted by the University of Texas at Arlington’s College of Business, Sriram Villupuram wrote down on his notepad that inflation, after years of mixed signals, was finally under control. That weekend, the conflict with Iran began and all bets were off, said Villupuram, associate professor in the department of finance and real estate.
“Inflation was, on average, low because energy prices were stable or slightly declining, and that was really keeping overall inflation down,” he said. “Now the bigger question is, what was zero or negative up until (the week before the conflict began) is starting to pick up very fast in terms of prices.”
When energy prices rise, Villupuram notes that it tends to have a ripple effect making everything more expensive.
“Once we have an understanding of when the war is going to get over, fuel prices could fall,” he said. “Gas prices usually fall pretty quickly, but those other increases will linger much longer.”
That makes Villupuram concerned about the long-term inflation outlook.
“The Fed is not going to be very happy about lowering interest rates anytime this year, so that’s a concern,” he said. The business community expected one, if not two, interest rate cuts this year, he said.
Indeed, reports have surfaced recently that the Federal Reserve will be hesitant to cut rates at their March 18 meeting and analysts have lowered the expectations for a cut in September.
Keeping rates as they are will have an impact on the housing market, Villupuram said.
“It’s going to also move the 10- and 30-year long-term treasury yields, which means that the mortgage rates may not be going down as we were hoping this year. This one event is triggering a lot of cascading uncertainties.”
Another uncertainty, Villupuram said, is the newly nominated president of the Federal Reserve Bank, Kevin Warsh.
Warsh, who was nominated by President Donald Trump, has been critical of the Federal Reserve’s large holdings of U.S. Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities.
“Before the Great Recession, the Fed was buying up about less than $1 trillion worth of long-term loans to keep those loans more affordable for the average American,” said Villupuram.
As the Federal Reserve dealt with that economic crisis, it began purchasing more, eventually reaching $2 trillion.
“That went on for a while, then … before COVID it was about $4 trillion dollars worth of loans they were buying that kept interest rates low for that whole decade and a half,” he said. “Then COVID hit and that four and a half doubled, and we peaked at $9 trillion when Russia invaded Ukraine.”
It has started to wind down, but markets are wondering what will happen if the Federal Reserve continues to lower those loan purchases.
“Kevin Warsh has said in the past that the Fed shouldn’t be in the business of buying mortgage loans and long-term treasuries, so the question is will he follow up on that? Because if the Fed doesn’t continue this, then rates are going to go up again, which means the mortgage rates, car loan rates are going to go up again. That’s the question.”
Villupuram said that things appeared fairly smooth for the financial markets prior to him making notes for the real estate conference, but now that has changed.
“It was going to be a very docile year for interest rates but, unfortunately, a lot of things are turning it into an exciting year, whether you like it or not,” he said.
TXO selling joint ventures’ assets
TXO announced March 10 that Cross Timbers Energy, a joint venture in which it has a 50% interest, is selling oil and gas properties totaling approximately $200 million, to multiple buyers. If the deals are completed, that would represent most of the assets owned by Cross Timbers. TXO said it intends to use a portion of the proceeds to pay the $70 million deferred payment for the 2025 purchase of assets from White Rock Energy, due on July 31. Going forward, the company’s operations will focus on the Williston Basin, San Juan Basin and the Vacuum and Parker fields in the Permian Basin.
Brokerage expands
Residential real estate brokerage Compass has expanded its Fort Worth office, located at 5049 Edwards Ranch Road, Suite 200, in The Shops at Clearfork. The office is now over 10,000 square feet following a redesign.
The move follows a wave of several Realtors and Realtor groups joining the firm, including:
- Dewald Lipari Real Estate Group (formerly of League Real Estate)
- The Urban Group (formerly of Williams Trew)
- Wendy Tockey and Ana Lopez (formerly with Douglas Elliman Real Estate)
Bob Francis is business editor for the Fort Worth Report. Contact him at [email protected].
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